NFL Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Meet Division Rival Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, December 24, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Tarvaris Jackson - NFL Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Meet Division Rival Seattle Seahawks

Analysis:
Although holder of the NFC West title, the San Francisco 49ers have a tenuous clasp on the No. 2 seed in the conference and an outside shot at the top seed. That being said, the Niners have plenty of reasons to be wary as they head to Seattle for a divisional matchup with the resurgent Seahawks on Saturday.

Not only does San Francisco have to worry about a letdown after an emotional home win against Pittsburgh on Monday night, it is facing an opponent that has won five of its last six games and had the 49ers on the ropes in Week 1 until Ted Ginn Jr. returned a kickoff and punt for touchdowns in the final four minutes.

San Francisco enters the season's final two games tied with New Orleans for the NFC's No. 2 overall seed, which guarantees an off week in the first round of the conference playoffs, but currently holds the edge on the Saints by virtue of a superior conference record. A victory over the Seahawks, coupled with a New Orleans loss to fellow contender Atlanta on Monday, would secure the 49ers a spot in the top two.

Obtaining that win could be tough to come by, however. Seattle has experienced a dramatic turnaround over the second half of this 2011 campaign, ripping off victories in five of its last six games after a rough 2-6 start. The Seahawks return home riding a season-high three-game winning streak in which they've scored 30 or more points on each of those occasions.

A playmaking defense and hard running from feature back Marshawn Lynch has carried Seattle back into the playoff mix, though seizing a Wild Card berth still remains a long shot. Trailing both Atlanta and Detroit by two games in the standings, the Seahawks will have to win both this week's tilts and at Arizona while both the Falcons and Lions lose both their remaining tests.

Lynch has rushed for over 100 yards in five of the last seven weeks and has scored a touchdown in a franchise record 10 consecutive games, but was held to a mere 42 yards on 20 carries in last weekend's clash at slumping Chicago. His limited output was offset by another opportunistic performance by the defense, however, with Seattle scoring 21 points off five Bears turnovers en route to a 38-14 rout.

Lineman Red Bryant and cornerback Brandon Browner both had interception returns for touchdowns in the second half as the Seahawks outscored Chicago by a 31-0 margin after the break. Seattle now has amassed a league-best 18 takeaways over its six-week tear and scored three defensive touchdowns over its last three outings.

Pete Carroll's charges will now try to continue that success against a San Francisco outfit that tops in the NFL with a plus-25 turnover ratio, while Lynch will be facing a rugged 49ers defense that's yielding a league-low 71.5 rushing yards per game and hasn't allowed an individual 100-yard rusher in 36 consecutive contests.

San Francisco, which also leads the league in fewest points allowed (13.2 ppg), was a force on that side of the ball once again in Monday's 20-3 ousting of playoff-bound Pittsburgh. The Niners held the Steelers to 287 total yards and induced four turnovers, including three interceptions of a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger.

The 49ers also allowed just 219 total yards and had three takeaways in a 33-17 triumph over the Seahawks at Candlestick Park in the season opener, with Lynch managing only 33 yards on 13 attempts.

The Seahawks hold a slight 13-12 edge in their all-time series with San Francisco, with the teams having split the home-and-home set in each of the past three seasons. Seattle has come out on top in the last two meetings held at CenturyLink Field, following up a 20-17 win in 2009 with a 31-6 shellacking of the Niners in Week 1 of the 2010 season. San Francisco last prevailed in Seattle via a 33-30 overtime shootout in 2008 and hasn't swept the Seahawks in a season since 2006.

San Francisco's besting of the Seahawks back in September marked the first time that Carroll and 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh faced one another in an NFL game, but the two went head-to-head three times in the college ranks when Carroll was at the helm of USC and Harbaugh at Stanford. Harbaugh's Cardinal won two of those encounters, including a 24-23 upset of the then-No. 2 ranked Trojans in 2007 that snapped USC's 35-game home win streak.

Carroll, once San Francisco's defensive coordinator from 1995-96, is 2-2 against his onetime employer as a head coach. The first of those victories came in 1998, when he was then in charge of the New England Patriots.

Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Saturday, December 24, 2011. CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington

Last Week's results:
- San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) beats visiting Pittsburgh Steelers 20-3.
- Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) beats host Chicago Bears 38-14.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite San Francisco 49ers (11-3) wins and covers
- Underdog Seattle Seahawks (7-7) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: 49ers -1.5, O/U 37.5

Next up:
- San Francisco at St. Louis Rams, Sunday, January 1
- Seattle at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, January 1

San Francisco's defense, which has allowed a league-low 185 points, flexed its muscles again in a 20-3 victory over the Steelers. The 49ers forced four turnovers by Ben Roethlisberger and extended their streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher to 36 games, the longest active streak in the league. Rookie DE Aldon Smith was an imposing presence with 2.5 sacks, giving him 13.0 on the season. QB Alex Smith threw for only 187 yards but was not sacked and did not commit a turnover. He found TE Vernon Davis six times for 72 yards and a TD.


Seattle has won three straight to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. Predominantly a running team, the Seahawks are averaging 33 points per game in their three-game winning streak and have outscored opponents 99-41. QB Tarvaris Jackson is not putting up huge numbers, but hasn’t been picked off in the last three games.

With Lynch likely to find plenty of clogged lanes against the San Francisco defense, Jackson's going to have to be more than merely a caretaker for the Seahawks to continue their streak and must continue to be careful with the football. While Smith has flourished in essentially a game-managing capacity of his own for the 49ers, the formerly-maligned quarterback's numbers are noticeably better at home than on the road, and he'll be going up against a Seattle secondary that's much improved from when these teams last met.

The matchup between San Francisco's incredibly judicious offense and a Seattle defense that's been the best in the league at causing mistakes over the second half is maybe the most intriguing one of this game. The Seahawks are 5-1 this season when winning the turnover battle and 0-4 when coming out on the negative side of the ledger, and their three giveaways to the 49ers in the opener was a contributing factor to that loss.

One of the stars of the Week 1 showdown between these clubs was 49ers return man Ted Ginn Jr., who took back both a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of San Francisco's victory that day. He's doubtful to suit up this week due to a sprained ankle, however, which takes away one of the team's valued weapons.

San Francisco is the first team in league history to not allow a rushing TD in the first 14 games of a season.

The Seahawks are tied for second in the league with 21 interceptions. They returned two for TDs in last week's 38-14 win at Chicago.

Niners RB Frank Gore has the two highest rushing games in franchise history and both have come against Seattle – 212 yards in November 2006 and 207 in September 2009.

Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games on the road

With the way both these defenses have been performing, anything other than a low-scoring struggle would be a surprise. If that's indeed the case, San Francisco's longstanding issues of converting in the red zone and sustaining drives could very well come into play here, and the NFC West champs have lost two straight nail-biters on the road in large part because of missed opportunities.

While Lynch stands a very good chance of being neutralized in this game and Seattle's protection problems are a big concern, the Seahawks' defense should be able to keep them in it until the end. And if it's able to continue its trend of coming up with game-changing plays, that could very well tip the scales in favor of a home team that's quietly been playing playoff- caliber ball for quite some time now.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Seahawks.

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aldon smith - alex smith - arizona cardinals - ben roethlisberger - brandon browner - candlestick park - centurylink field - chicago bears - frank gore - jim harbaugh