NFL Prediction: Can Washington Redskins Dash NY Giants' Playoff Dream?

Saturday, December 17, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Eli Manning - NFL Prediction: Can Washington Redskins Dash NY Giants' Playoff Dream?

Analysis:
The Washington Redskins shocked the Giants 28-14 in this season’s opener at Washington to end New York Giants' six-game winning streak between the two division rivals. It was a promising start fort the Redskins but the injury bug hit the DC dwellers hard as they proceeded to lose nine of their last twelve games although have been very competitive in the past four games since reinstating Rex Grossman at quarterback.

Grossman threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener against New York and nearly matched Tom Brady and the high-powered Patriots last week. He’ll need to hit on all cylinders to stay with the sizzling Eli Manning and the Giants’ offense this week.

Many weren't convinced when Manning said he deserved consideration as one of the top quarterbacks in the league this past offseason. Several skeptics argued his bold claim after Manning threw 25 interceptions and failed to lead the Giants to the postseason last year. What a 180-degree turnaround it has been for the passer, however, who's not only aiming to break Dan Marino's single-season passing record but is also trying to will New York to the playoffs.

The Giants control their own destiny for division supremacy, but only winning out would avoid any headaches within the playoff scenarios. Though they may be able to afford losing one of their final three games, the team still has the Dallas Cowboys chasing its coattails for NFC East bragging rights with the two rivals currently tied in the standings.

The Giants just defeated Dallas on the road this past Sunday night behind another strong performance from their offensive MVP. Manning threw for exactly 400 yards on 27-of-47 passing with two touchdowns and an interception, marking the third straight game in which he surpassed the 300-yard mark and third time this season he hit 400 yards. He is 979 yards shy of matching Marino's passing record of 5,084 yards set during the 1984 campaign, but is also one of four quarterbacks aiming for the former Miami star's mark, along with Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Manning is more focused on keeping the Giants on course for the playoffs and said the win over the Cowboys would matter little if the team fails to take care of business the rest of the way.

The Redskins, New York Jets and Cowboys remain on the upcoming schedule for the Giants, who were able to stop a four-game losing streak and avoid dropping five in a row for the first time since the 2004 campaign. New York now has to put the brakes on a two-game home losing streak this week in order to keep hope alive. The last time the Giants lost three in a row as the host was a four-game slide at the Meadowlands in 2007, a year in which they went on to win the franchise's third Super Bowl title.

Washington will finish the season with a record at .500 or below for a fourth straight campaign, and the losing ways continued with last Sunday's hard-fought 34-27 loss to the New England Patriots at FedEx Field.

The Redskins took Brady and the Patriots to the limit, but like many of their games this season, the ultimate result was not achieved. Grossman, who stated during the shortened offseason that the Redskins had a chance to win the NFC East, played fairly well with 252 yards passing, two touchdowns and an interception. The offense mustered just one touchdown in the second half, however, clearing a path for the Patriots and opening the door to possible changes under head coach Mike Shanahan.

Washington has been below average in losing two straight and eight of nine games since storming out of the gates with a 3-1 record. The Redskins headed into their bye week on Oct. 9 looking pretty good in keeping Grossman's prediction true, but a mixture of blowout losses and close defeats has the team peering down a 4-9 hole with the Giants, Minnesota and Philadelphia remaining.

Grossman is still the quarterback after the Redskins had a brief experiment with John Beck at midseason, but now it's rookie running back Roy Helu's show now with Tim Hightower done for the season with a torn ACL suffered in October.

The Giants have a 91-62-4 advantage in the all-time regular-season series with Washington and had won six straight meetings in the set prior to the Redskins' previously-noted victory in the 2011 opener. New York had recorded home-and- home sweeps of Washington in each of the previous three years, and the Redskins are 1-6 in their last seven games against the Giants as the visiting team, with the only positive result over that span a 22-10 decision behind then-backup quarterback Todd Collins during Week 15 of the 2007 campaign. Washington, which hasn't bested New York twice in the same season since 1999, was dealt a 31-7 defeat at MetLife Stadium in December of 2010.

These storied rivals have also split two postseason matchups, with the Giants' 17-0 triumph in the 1986 NFC Championship countering a 28-0 Washington win in a 1943 NFC Division Playoff.

Giants head coach Tom Coughlin is 12-6 against the Redskins all-time, including a 1-2 mark while with the Jacksonville Jaguars from 1995-2002. Mike Shanahan is 2-4 versus New York over his head coaching career, having gone 1-2 while in charge of Washington and 1-2 during his 14-year run with the Denver Broncos from 1995-2008.

Shanahan and Coughlin have a significant shared history, with their respective teams opposing one another five times between 1995 and 1999 when Coughlin's Jaguars and Shanahan's Broncos were regularly near the top of the AFC. Shanahan was 3-2 against Coughlin in those games, including a loss to Jacksonville in the 1996 AFC Playoffs and a win in the 1997 postseason. Coughlin has gone 3-1 in head-to-head bouts with Shanahan since, with the Giants following up a 24-23 verdict over Denver in 2005 with last season's series sweep of the Redskins and the above-mentioned Week 1 loss.

Time & Venue:
- 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, December 18, 2011. MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Last Week's results:
- Washington Redskins (+9) loses to visiting New England Patriots 34-27.
- New York Giants (+3) beats host Dallas Cowboys 37-34.

Last week's ATS:
- Underdog Washington Redskins (4-9) loses but covers
- Underdog New York Giants (7-6) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Giants -7, O/U 46.5

Next up:
- Washington home to Minnesota Vikings, Saturday, December 24
- New York Giants at NY Jets, Saturday, December 24

Washington’s offense is averaging 24 points in its last four games and Grossman, who was benched in the midst of what turned out to be a six-game losing streak, has been superb as of late. Grossman has thrown six touchdowns passes and for more than 1,000 yards in his last four games and rookie running back Helu has formed a perfect complement, topping 100 yards in three straight games. The Redskins do have a bit of bulletin-board material to use as incentive after New York safety Antrel Rolle said the Giants could beat the Redskins 99 times out of 100.


New York rallied from a 12-point deficit in the final minutes to beat Dallas last week in a critical NFC East contest. The victory snapped New York’s four-game skid and vaulted the Giants into first place in the division. New York now controls its own fate, and if it wins the final three games of the regular season it will clinch the division title.

The Giants are only 3-3 at home and their defense is a mess. New York has allowed 121 points in their last three games and is ranked 30th in the NFL in total defense. But Manning, who went over the 4,000-yard mark for the season in the win against the Cowboys, has his offense ranked fourth in passing and averaging nearly 25 ppg. Manning knows he has to keep firing away with his defense further hindered by injuries to defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck.

The Redskins will have a pulse in this matchup if they can get Helu to run wild against a New York defense that is 22nd against the rush. Cowboys running back Felix Jones took over for an injured DeMarco Murray last Sunday and collected 106 yards on 16 carries.

New York must tighten up in the secondary and is 29th in pass defense, allowing 263.7 yards per game. It doesn't help that safety Kenny Phillips is bothered by a knee injury. He had started 28 straight games and was replaced in the lineup by Deon Grant last week. Washington still has Santana Moss as a deep threat and Grossman had a good game when these teams met one another in September.

Manning can move closer to Marino's single-season passing mark this week with another 400-yard performance. That sounds too much to ask for, but it would help Manning's cause as well of that of his team. He has passed for a career- high 4,105 yards, eclipsing Kerry Collins' team mark of 4,073 yards set in 2002. Those numbers have allowed wide receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz to both reach 1,000 yards on the season -- the first time the Giants had a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in the team's history. The Redskins will need to slow those three down to have their best chance of winning.

Three of Grossman's best six passing games of all-time have come against the Giants.

Giants safety Kenny Phillips is questionable with a knee injury.

New York sacked Grossman four times in the season opener.

NY Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Giants last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Giants are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home
Washington is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Washington is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants

The Giants are on a mission right now and look to gather the same steam that led them to a Super Bowl title back in 2007. Things haven't gone as planned at home recently for them, however, and now's the time to start playing well with all of their last three games scheduled at MetLife Stadium (though they'll be the visitor against the Jets). New York will have some trouble defensively against a Redskins team that has nothing to play for, but in the end Big Blue will send Washington back home with another loss.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Giants.

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aaron rodgers - antrel rolle - dallas cowboys - demarco murray - deon grant - drew brees - eli manning - felix jones - hakeem nicks - john beck